About the Manual
Welcome to the Anticipatory Action Manual: A Red Cross Red Crescent Practitioners’ Guide!
This manual provides step-by-step operational guidance for the design, implementation and strengthening of anticipatory action approaches within the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, with a particular focus on the development of Early Action Protocols. It builds on lessons learned, operational experience and evolving practice from anticipatory action initiatives worldwide.
The manual is intended as a living resource that will continue to evolve alongside anticipatory action practice. Contributions, examples and lessons learned from practitioners are therefore highly encouraged.
What you will find inside the Anticipatory Action Manual
- Introduction: What is anticipatory action?
- Approaches for National Societies to implement anticipatory action
- 01. Scope possibilities for anticipatory action
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- Step 1: Start exploring anticipatory action
- Step 2: Identify a focal point for anticipatory action
- Step 3: Initial discussions on how to integrate anticipatory action in existing plans and mechanisms
- Step 4: Reflect on suitable anticipatory action approaches in your context
- Step 5: Understand and define the value of a scoping study for your context
- Step 6: Define the support that you need for the study
- Step 7: Design the Study
- Step 8: Select the person or team to conduct the study
- Step 9: Conduct desk review
- Step 10: Collect primary data in-country
- Step 11: Write report
- Step 12: Validate results with stakeholders (National Societies and partners)
- Step 13: Report the results
- Step 14: Decide the next steps
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 02. Engage your stakeholders
- 03. Prepare your National Society for anticipatory action
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- Step 1: Double-check ownership at leadership level for anticipatory action
- Step 2: Develop a plan to prepare your National Society to engage in anticipatory action
- Step 3: Put together and onboard a team for anticipatory action
- Step 4: Agree on information management system
- Step 5: Sensitize other key staff of the National Society, government focal points and other stakeholders involved
- Step 6: Assess existing capacities, strategies and plans
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 04. Get to know the EAP criteria and the management process
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- Step 1: Reach out to IFRC delegation
- Step 2: Familiarize yourself with s/EAP templates and eligibility criteria
- Step 3: Submit and validate the s/EAP
- Step 4: Get IFRC approval and sign legal agreements
- Step 5: Managing the s/EAP
- Step 6: Activate the s/EAP
- Step 7: Monitor, evaluate and learn from the activation
- Step 8: Revalidate your s/EAP
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 05. Collect risk, early action and impact information
- 06. Determine activation trigger
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- Step 1: Select hazard
- Step 2: Understand what needs to go in a trigger
- Intervention map: When do you need it?
- Step 3: Establish coordination mechanism
- Step 4: Define hazard variables to monitor based on impacts and early actions
- Step 5: Compile a menu of forecasts
- Step 6: Set impact threshold
- Step 7: Link impact and hazard magnitude
- Step 8: Define and justify trigger threshold and forecast variable
- Step 9: Define stop mechanism (if applicable)
- Step 10: Develop a trigger statement
- Step 11: Develop a mechanism that defines the intervention area
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 07. Select early actions
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- Step 1: Define your team
- Step 2: Develop a data collection plan to do the following
- Step 3: Identify impacts
- Step 4: Prioritize impacts
- Step 5: Review and scope existing early actions
- Step 6: Identify and brainstorm potential early actions
- Step 7: Narrow and prioritize list of early action
- Step 8: Develop theories of change
- Step 9: Test or workshop - Theory of change
- Step 10: Finalize early actions
- Step 11: Develop an activation plan for selected actions and test it
- Step 12: Make rationale explicit your anticipatory action plan
- Final lessons and recommendations
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 07.1. Cash-based Early Actions
- 07.2. Link Early Actions to Social Protection
- 08. Develop activation processes for your anticipatory action plan
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- Step 1: Set-up a forecast monitoring and activation processes
- Step 2: Develop a communication protocol
- Step 3: Develop early action implementation process
- Step 4: Develop process for targeting people at risk
- Step 5: Review security guidelines
- Step 6: Document and institutionalize data storage and activation procedures
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 09. Prepare Activation Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability & Learning
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- Introduction
- Step 1: Set up your MEAL team
- Step 2: Understand MEAL requirements in the s/EAP template and assessment criteria
- Step 3: Plan your PDM & CEA
- Step 4 (optional): Plan to go beyond the minimum MEAL requirements
- Step 5.1: Evaluation of the activation process
- Step 5.2: Outcome & Impact Evaluation
- Step 5.3: Trigger review
- Step 6: Setting yourself up for success - lessons from experience
- Step 7: Incorporate findings
- Step 8: Share your evidence
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 10. Design the s/EAP budget
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- Introduction
- Step 1: Familiarize yourself with the eligible types of activities in an s/EAP
- Step 2: Download the latest version of the template
- Step 3: Plan the budget and fill the budget template
- Step 4: Double-check what goes where
- Step 5: Double-check that your budget meets all the guidelines
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 11. Prepare for activation: build capacity and test your plan
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- Step 1: Map capacities, resources and procedures needed for the implementation of the plan
- Step 2: Review existing assessments on capacities and procedures to identify gaps
- Step 3: Finalize the organizational structure for the implementation
- Step 4: Conduct trainings and develop guidance material
- Step 5: Disseminate the anticipatory action plan
- Step 6: Test your plan through a simulation
- Step 6.1: Understand why and when to use a simulation
- Step 6.2: Decide what kind of simulation you would like to conduct and plan, design and organize the simulation
- Step 6.3 Conduct the simulation
- Step 6.4: Evaluate and share lessons learned
- Step 7: Integrate lessons learned in guidance and trainings
- Toolbox
- Quiz
- 12. Submit your s/EAP to IFRC for funding
- 13. Activate, revise, and resubmit your s/EAP
- Specific Guidance on the Imminent DREF for anticipatory action
- Considerations for non-weather hazards
- Glossary of Terms for Anticipatory Action
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- Acting in vain
- Action lifetime
- Anticipatory action
- Cash & voucher assistance
- Climatology
- Contingency planning
- Deterministic weather forecast
- Dialogue Platform
- Drill
- Early Action
- Early Action Protocol (EAP)
- Early Warning Early Action
- Early Warning System
- Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)
- Epidemic
- Exposure
- Extended-range Weather Forecasting
- Extreme Weather Event
- Impact-based Forecasting
- Feasibility Study (FS)
- False Alarm Ratio (FAR)
- Forecast
- Forecast-based Financing (FbF)
- Forecast Skill
- Hazard
- Hazard-impact curve
- Hazard magnitude
- Historical impact
- Historical forecast data / hindcasts
- Inclusion
- Intervention map
- Impact Level
- Implementation Time
- Lead Time
- Menu of Forecasts
- Meteorological Agency
- National Scale / Flexible Approach
- Preparedness for Effective Response (PER)
- Predictive Analytics (in the humanitarian sector)
- Probabilistic forecast
- Probability Threshold
- Readiness
- Residual Risk
- Return Period
- Shelf life
- Short-range Weather Forecasting
- Simulation
- Social Protection
- Trigger
- Theory of Change
- Verification
- Vulnerability
- Downloads
Do you prefer to work with the manual offline?
The Anticipatory Action Manual can be used online and offline. With the online version you are always up to date and you can use the links provided in the text. Of course, you can also download individual chapters or the whole manual in one pdf file. Make sure that you are using the latest version. You find the date of the last update indicated in your pdf and under each chapter on the website respectively.
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Latest update: 05/27/2026